OBAMA'S POLITICAL WOES – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:   Based on poll results, Obama is in serious trouble, at least right now.  Michael Gerson, at WaPo, gives a good analysis of the president's position, and his potential:

To be safe, a president needs a Gallup job approval of 50 percent or better on Election Day. George W. Bush narrowly won reelection in 2004 with a 48 percent Gallup approval, mainly because his voters were more motivated than John Kerry’s. After a long, slow slide, Obama’s approval hovers in the low 40s. He starts with ground to make up.

Lacking the momentum of an economic recovery, the Obama campaign is signaling three elements of a political recovery strategy.

First — 32 months after his inauguration, 28 months after the unemployment rate first surged past 9 percent — Obama will propose a “very specific” jobs package. In September. Following a well-deserved vacation.

And...

The second element of Obama’s recovery strategy is to distance himself from a divided, dysfunctional, unpopular Congress. This, of course, is not fully consistent with element one — getting legislative achievements out of an institution you are savaging...A president cannot distance himself from a process he is supposed to lead and failed to lead effectively.

And...

Third, the Obama camp has previewed a campaign of personal attacks against its Republican opponent, whoever it happens to be. Obama advisers and Democratic strategists have been quoted by Politico calling Mitt Romney “weird,” possessing an “innate phoniness,” which will allow Democrats to “kill” his campaign. David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, has distanced himself from these comments. But such hardball is consistent with the way Obama has treated Speaker John Boehner (going to his home state of Ohio in 2010 to attack him directly) and Rep. Paul Ryan (inviting Ryan to a budget speech in which Obama trashed him as an enemy of children with Down syndrome).

And...

Obama’s cause is far from hopeless. His support has declined but not collapsed. A weak Republican opponent would help. And this emerging strategy — proposing symbolic measures on jobs, bashing an unpopular Congress and discrediting rivals — may be Obama’s only option. A campaign taking credit for positive economic accomplishments would be nearly silent...

...And this strategy must be a comedown for at least some of the idealists who elected Obama in the first place. Following expectations few presidents have raised as high, Obama has transformed into the most typical of politicians. There is little distinctive, elevated or inspirational about his message or his tactics. And this adds an unwanted accomplishment: the further political disillusionment of a nation.

COMMENT:  Very good analysis.  I would add, though, that Obama still has the media on his side, and that may be decisive in a close election.   Given a choice between a failed Obama and a potentially successful Republican, the choice of most journalists will be to stick with the man who makes them culturally happy. 

The election is still more than a year away.  The whole world can be different by then.  This will be a long and bitter fight.  I don't see national unity as an outcome.

August 19, 2011